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Eden-Monaro By-election
06-29-2020, 02:08 PM
Post: #1
Eden-Monaro By-election
Next Saturday and the focus is now on this bellwether seat.

It will be interesting to see what news items are released prior to the election and which are delayed until after the weekend.

Here are some indications of what we may be in for. Some of these date back to May. More to come this week?

The Guardian:"Eden-Monaro byelection: AFP investigate disinformation campaign against Labor's Kristy McBain. As the campaign enters its final week, police investigate widely distributed emails that make false claims about McBain and her family."

News.com.au: "Eden-Monaro by-election nears for voters The Coalition holds a slim lead over Labor at the national level in the latest Newspoll as voters in Eden-Monaro prepare for the by-election on July 4"

Western Advocate: "Morrison approval soars, by-election nears. Prime Minister Scott Morrison's approval rating has hit a new high, with the Coalition maintaining a slim lead over Labor at the national level ahead of the NSW Eden-Monaro by-election this weekend.

SMH: "JobKeeper plan to be kept secret until after Eden-Monaro byelection. The federal government will keep secret its revamped plan for the $70 billion JobKeeper package before the key Eden-Monaro byelection, as it prepares to make substantial changes to the wage subsidy scheme.

Sky News: "TONIGHT - ALBO PLAYS POLITICS AGAIN. Albo wants us to believe the Morrison government is evil. "

Canberra Times: "Eden-Monaro by-election: Big issues play on voters' minds.

It’s amazing how somehow this fundamental human rights issue has become about statues.
The statues, and I cannot emphasise this enough, do not care. Jon Kudelka
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06-29-2020, 02:48 PM (This post was last modified: 06-29-2020 02:52 PM by Di Wundrin.)
Post: #2
RE: Eden-Monaro By-election
Still not betting on this one.

It's like a Melbourne Cup field, and about as easy to pick.

Seems a no brainer to elect an MP who will have a voice in Government over one who will get to sit on the back bench and have no say in anything at all... but, like football fans, 'team' loyalty has to be considered.
Although...
There are rumblings from Labor members down there that were not consulted over who would stand as candidate. Albo just shoved her on them and the 'rank and file' didn't even have a chance to vote.
Some in particular feel they were in line and resent a 'noobie' being pushed to the front.

Same happened in Gilmore when Warren Mundine, a Liberal 'Captain's pick' was shoved in at the expense of Anne Sudmalis, 10 year incumbent. They lost big time.

The E-M Liberal candidate was elected by their rank and file but the Lib membership was none too happy about the farce in the early stages of pre-selection of Cryin' Constance being given a rails run over their candidate who was only beaten by a tiny margin at the last election.

They've now got the candidate they wanted all along so that may bolster the vote that may have been lost had Constance and Barilo still been in the scene.

Labor's pick is only known on the coast. She has no resonance with the agricultural inland regions.

She's there as a figurehead for "the bushfires" fiasco. As was Constance. But Wuflu has trumped the fires now.

The businesses burned out would still have been closed anyway so some of the 'heat' has gone out of that campaign point. The fire recovery has turned into the economic recovery so Labor is on the back foot on that aspect of it. They can't do a bloody thing about it. They can't pork barrel, they can't promise anything, and they have no real appeal to voters who need action now.

The Liberals can pork barrel. Can offer a candidate who will sit on the Government benches and have some input in decisions made for the area.
Are people down there silly? We'll see.

The minor Parties and Indies are the long shots that will impact the results.
Will local issues trump National ones? If so, how would Labor help? If not, if economic recovery and welfare support are top of mind, well, how would Labor help with that? From Opposition?
How would any of the minor Parties benefit the electorate either?

Are current times likely to initiate a "message to government" response? or a "if you can't beat 'em join 'em" response? I know I'd be electing an MP on the Government side, but sometimes logic doesn't apply at polling places.


Too hard to pick.
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06-29-2020, 03:20 PM
Post: #3
RE: Eden-Monaro By-election
Confucius say man who sits on fence end up with stake in derriere .....Blush

I still think labor....
If the LNP win, Albo is in deep deep doodoo.

Mucky? You there Mucky???
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06-29-2020, 07:32 PM
Post: #4
RE: Eden-Monaro By-election
Crikey.
preferred glorious leader.
Scomo 58%
Albo.....26%
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06-29-2020, 10:47 PM
Post: #5
RE: Eden-Monaro By-election
(06-29-2020 07:32 PM)maxhr54 Wrote:  Crikey.
preferred glorious leader.
Scomo 58%
Albo.....26%

The competition is weak.

Now I’ve finished my astrology degree, who knows what the future holds?
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06-30-2020, 10:11 AM
Post: #6
RE: Eden-Monaro By-election
I have seen those type of percentages before but a week in politics is a long time and Scomo is getting greyer by the day, but hey no worries his pentecostal God id right there helping him out.

Vote 1 labor.Big GrinBig Grin

See Max the muck is never far away and your dreams are coming from the afterglow Big GrinTongueAngel
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07-01-2020, 11:57 PM
Post: #7
RE: Eden-Monaro By-election
From Poll Bludger this week

Quote:Eden-Monaro by-election minus four days
More reports of alleged party internal polling, plus other developments on the by-election front.

As the campaign enters its final week, I have given my Eden-Monaro by-election guide an overdue overhaul, such that it now offers a thorough account of the Coalition’s preselection tangles and full detail on the various reports of opinion polling that have emerged, along with the usual charts, results map and historical detail. Other news worth noting:

• The Australian ($) reports the Nationals are hawking internal polling showing a surge in their own support potentially great enough to push the Liberals over the line. Their candidate, Trevor Hicks, was said to have risen from 6% a fortnight ago to 11.5%, clipping Liberal candidate Fiona Kotvojs from 36% to 34.3% and Shooters Fishers and Farmers from 7% to 4.6%. Labor’s Kristy McBain was said to have slumped from 36% to 29.3%, with the Greens up slightly from 7% to 8.7%. The more recent poll was conducted on Thursday from a sample of 630; the sample for the earlier poll was said to be rather larger.

• A borderline comical spam email attacking Labor candidate Kristy McBain is the subject of an Australian Federal Police investigation. Purporting to be from McBain’s campaign manager, the email claimed she had withdrawn as a candidate after being hospitalised with COVID-19, before holding her largely responsible for fabricating the Catholic Church sex abuse scandal. Complaints under the “misleading or deceptive publications” provision under the Electoral Act are ten a penny, and invariably fall foul of the limitation that the falsehood must be “in relation to the casting of a vote”, (which the Australian Electoral Commission contentiously determined did not apply to Chinese language Liberal Party advertising in Melbourne at last year’s election). In this case though, the material clearly crosses the line in asserting that votes for McBain will be invalid.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has so far processed 16,098 postal vote applications, compared with a total of 7426 at the 2019 election. The thirteen pre-poll voting centres now in operation have already received more than 21,000 votes; last time a total of 35,114 votes were cast at eight locations.

https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/06/30/e...four-days/

It’s amazing how somehow this fundamental human rights issue has become about statues.
The statues, and I cannot emphasise this enough, do not care. Jon Kudelka
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07-02-2020, 01:23 AM
Post: #8
RE: Eden-Monaro By-election
well. After everything that has happened to those people, and 100 years of poll science, the seat will return to the government?
If so, what is the future for Albo?
I see dead people.Blush
That is all.
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07-02-2020, 08:48 AM
Post: #9
RE: Eden-Monaro By-election
It's still a toss up to me.

The Liberal candidate hasn't fired brightly, hardly seen and rarely heard. She even knocked back an invitation to talk to SKY!! wtf?

She's an intelligent woman with strong ties in the district and only lost to Labor by a very small margin last round. Considering the personal vote for Mike Kelly that was a really good effort. So what's with her now?

What has Albo's kick arse campaign issue been down there??
The "fires recovery"? the economy?...nup. He's been assuring that the Labor candidate will "fight to restore funding to the ABC" .. seriously!

They're sleeping in cow sheds and caravans cos their houses burned down. Others are living on baked beans because the price of wool has tanked, they're all trying to repel invaders from Danistan, worried that Gran is in a nursing home where somebody sneezed, wondering how long it will be before the local bank and grocery store shut down and he thinks their biggest worry is the staff salaries at the effing ABC???
...anyone would think that the ABC belongs to Labor or something!Cool

Barilaro has kicked the marbles around again, and Hicks (Nats) is said to be considering preferencing Labor over the Liberal candidate! wtf again??

Too confused, too many (coastal v. rural) conflicting interests, too many local (really local, town by town) issues involved for me to risk a dollar on it.

Gut says Lib, by a whisker, but who knows what the last minute thinking will be?
Will those who voted for Kelly, stay with his Party? Or will they be annoyed that he resigned due to "ill health" only to start work for some spook outfit next day? Will they feel 'dumped' by Labor?

So many have already postal and pre poll voted there's only about half the electorate left to convince.

Got your popcorn for Saturday night?? ... buy extra as the results may not be posted for weeks considering the volume of postal votes in play.
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07-02-2020, 09:10 AM
Post: #10
RE: Eden-Monaro By-election
looking at the two big things that hit the electorate: Fires and 'rona
Controlling fires is a state government responsibility
'Rona came from china.

Bushfire recovery? To a certain extent that is an individuals issue: did they have fire insurance?
So, as Tony Abbott would say : "Shit happens" ......

In conclusion: it's clear as mud....Blush
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